Tough enough

Walking a thin line

Photo by Sean Benesh on Unsplash

It’s spring. Which means, of course, it’s time for the birds, the bees and … budgets!

Many non-profits run on a fiscal rather than calendar year, with a preponderance on a July-June year accounting cycle. This is how our Habitat for Humanity affiliate operates.

We have started the annual process of discerning what dollars will be coming in, what will be going out and what assumptions will and won’t pan out. And, critically, what investments we will make for future growth.

This year’s planning for the next promises to be a nightmarish laughable challenging exercise. Budgeting is always a game of best guesses, peering into a cloudy future, albeit usually with a solid sense of what is likely, based on past performance. And since much of our plans are subject to forces beyond our control — land availability, zoning and planning boards, family finances — budgeting requires a lot of faith to complement financial acumen.

We are throwing out many assumptions for the year ahead. But we are also not pulling the fire alarm. Our operation is in reasonably good shape to ride out mild to modest dislocations. We are reasonably sure of our activities over the next 12-15 months and the capital needed to sustain them. We are not very dependent on federal funds, and minimally exposed to state funding tied to the feds. But still, these are not normal times.

The tariffs enacted this week are an act of economic self-sabotage, no matter where you may stand politically. Per the Economist magazine:

“It’s hard to know which is more unsettling, that the leader of the free world could spout complete drivel about its most successful and admired economy. Or the fact that on April 2nd, spurred on by his delusions, Donald Trump announced the biggest break in America’s trade policy in over a century—and committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.”

One wonders, though, how low we will go? It is not an unreasonable question. In fact, it is a fiduciary one.

How far will the anti-government forces now in charge of our Federal administration get in dismantling the structures and programs that benefit the millions of Americans? And what will the economic damage look like: Sharp and brutal, or a slow bleed? Anyone, anyone?

Construction input costs were already accelerating again, after some moderation in increases over the past year or so. These costs are likely to climb, especially wood products which essential to house framing, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

SNAFU, again.

Time to batten down, remain composed, and stay close to our cart.

More to dislocation is sure to come…but we’re resilient and tough minded. And we’ll persevere. Many of those we serve will not be as fortunate.

“A sage traveling all day
is never far from the supplies in his cart,
and however spectacular the views
he remains calm and composed.”
- Lao Tzu

“We cannot choose our external circumstances, but we can always choose how we respond to them.” - Epictetus